With no sign of progress in ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran following the most severe violence in weeks, Hezbollah, a militia backed by Tehran, rejected on Thursday a U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal in Lebanon.
U.S. President Donald Trump said ceasefire talks have entered the “final” stage, after Iran’s foreign minister stated negotiations had reached a deadlock. On Wednesday, following a U.S. attack on an oil tanker heading to Iran, Iran launched missiles and drones at Kuwait and Bahrain, killing one person and injuring dozens at Kuwait’s main airport.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah militants said they refused to comply with a ceasefire agreement announced hours earlier by the U.S. State Department. According to Lebanon’s Ministry of Health, Israeli airstrikes killed at least eight people. The Israeli military stated that Hezbollah fired several rockets at its soldiers, but no casualties were reported.
On Thursday, a reporter asked Trump in the Oval Office about Hezbollah’s refusal to halt hostilities, to which Trump responded, “They didn’t reject me,” and claimed, “They called us” to discuss stopping hostilities.
Despite ongoing hostilities, oil prices retreated after three consecutive days of gains, buoyed by investor optimism following the U.S. announcement of a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon. Israel’s continued military strikes on Lebanon have become a major obstacle to Trump’s efforts to pull the United States out of the Iran war he himself helped ignite.
Technical Analysis:
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Gold: After recovering to 4460/70 yesterday, prices surged above 4510 before gradually giving back some gains. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement is progressing slowly, and tonight’s non-farm payroll report could trigger significant volatility. For today, our focus should be on defense—waiting for any positive news regarding the deal over the weekend. If favorable developments emerge, we can resume long positions next Monday. However, if no good news comes by the weekend, prices may test the 4400 level. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: After overnight price action swept through the yellow zone liquidity, it rebounded strongly as expected, achieving a 3:1 risk-reward ratio. For today, we recommend staying on the sidelines and waiting for more confirmed signals. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: Yesterday, the price broke below the blue zone and also fell below our target level of 95.30. However, the subsequent rebound failed to reach sufficient strength. For today, we are slightly adjusting our strategy—waiting for the price to sweep above 96 and absorb liquidity before it retraces and breaks down again, allowing us to sell accordingly. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to watch:
20:30 U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Employment Change, Seasonally Adjusted, May
