The United States said Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a ceasefire if Hezbollah also halts fighting. This is the latest effort by the Trump administration to keep peace talks with Iran moving forward, as political forces opposing the war are gaining momentum.
The White House stated that an agreement between Israel and Lebanon depends on Hezbollah—a Iran-backed militia—completely ceasing its attacks, adding in a statement that the group must withdraw all personnel from Lebanese territory south of the Litani River near the Israeli border.
The statement said: “Israel and Lebanon reaffirm that neither side has hostile intentions, and commit to continuing direct negotiations to build trust, resolve all outstanding issues, and work toward a comprehensive agreement between the two countries.”
There are currently no signs indicating whether Hezbollah has accepted the terms of the agreement. This week, U.S. President Donald Trump said he had spoken with “high-level representatives” of Hezbollah, and both sides agreed to halt all gunfire between Hezbollah and Israel.
Gold prices rose after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a conditional ceasefire, which could be a step toward resolving the broader Middle East conflict. Gold surged 0.7%, approaching $4,465 per ounce, recovering some of the 1.2% loss from the previous trading day as buying returned at lower levels. In a joint statement, Israel, Lebanon, and the United States said the agreement among the three nations hinges on Iran-backed Hezbollah “fully ceasing” hostilities.
For gold, hopes of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon have “eased the short-term pressure from yields and the dollar, while gold’s pullback to near its long-term trendline has drawn bargain buyers back into the market.”
However, inflationary pressures are likely to persist if the conflict is not addressed more comprehensively. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan said officials may need to raise interest rates later this year to bring inflation back to the U.S. central bank’s 2% target level.
Ryan McKay and Bart Melek, analysts at Daiwa Securities, said in a report: “Given persistent inflation concerns, the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at least until early 2027, making it difficult for gold to see any meaningful recovery.”
Technical Analysis:
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Gold: As we mentioned during last night’s live broadcast, prices might test another low following the ISM data before rebounding. Indeed, after dropping below 4430, prices have now recovered to around 4460/70. This level has been a key battleground for bulls and bears over the past 24 hours. Today, we are watching for a breakout above this level, with a buy signal expected upon confirmation through a pullback. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: Yesterday, our buy stop in the blue zone captured a wave of momentum, but the downward sweep through the yellow liquidity zone was not fully realized. Today, we will continue monitoring for rebound signals following the price’s downward sweep. The yellow zone remains at 30100/30200 intraday. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: Overnight prices did not break below the lower boundary of our blue zone, so the sell stop we wanted was not triggered. For today, we will continue using this level as support and wait for the price to drop near 95.30 before entering a sell limit order on a retest of the blue zone. For exact positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to watch:
20:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Seasonally Adjusted), Previous Week (in Thousands) (as of 0530)
